Mid-Season Report: Meh

The Mariners have now played exactly half of this season’s 162 games. Even though they’re currently three games under .500, the M’s are doing better than expected. However, by Ichiro’s stellar standards, 2011 so far has been a big disappointment. I’ve crunched some numbers here — note that the “career” stats don’t include 2011 stats…

Games
2011 So Far: 80
2011 Projected: 160
Career Average: 159
Difference: +1

At Bats
2011 So Far: 334
2011 Projected: 668
Career Average: 680
Difference: -12

Runs
2011 So Far: 42
2011 Projected: 84
Career Average: 105
Difference: -21

Hits
2011 So Far: 92
2011 Projected: 184
Career Average: 224
Difference: -40

Doubles
2011 So Far: 13
2011 Projected: 26
Career Average: 26
Difference: 0

Triples
2011 So Far: 2
2011 Projected: 4
Career Average: 7
Difference: -3

Home Runs
2011 So Far: 1
2011 Projected: 2
Career Average: 9
Difference: -7

Runs Batted In
2011 So Far: 22
2011 Projected: 44
Career Average: 56
Difference: -12

Walks
2011 So Far: 23
2011 Projected: 46
Career Average: 46
Difference: 0

Strikeouts
2011 So Far: 31
2011 Projected: 62
Career Average: 68
Difference: -6

Stolen Bases
2011 So Far: 20
2011 Projected: 40
Career Average: 38
Difference: +2

Batting Average
2011 So Far/Projected: .275
Career Average: .331
Difference: -.056

On-Base Percentage
2011 So Far/Projected: .321
Career Average: .376
Difference: -.055

Slugging Percentage
2011 So Far/Projected: .335
Career Average: .430
Difference: -.095

On-Base Plus Slugging
2011 So Far/Projected: .657
Career Average: .806
Difference: -.149

Yikes.

So, what does this all mean? Most immediately, Ichiro extending his streak of ten consecutive All-Star Games is in serious jeopardy. He probably won’t get enough votes to start this year’s game, and as his stats show, he doesn’t deserve being named an alternate, either. Getting an eleventh consecutive Gold Glove award is also doubtful — he averaged 2.8 errors per season going into 2011, and he already has three this year.

However, Ichiro’s most impressive streak can still be salvaged. To reach 200 hits for his 11th straight season (and break Pete Rose’s career record of ten career 200-hit seasons), he’ll need 108 more hits in 2011. Assuming he gets the same amount of at-bats in the second half as the first (334), he’ll need to hit .324 — seven points below his career .331 average — to set the record. If, in those 334 at-bats, he gets at least one more hit for a total of 109, he’ll also extend his streak of .300 seasons to 11. (I’ve often wondered, has anyone ever had 200 hits in a season without batting .300? Anyone?)

Ichiro currently leads all Mariners with at least 41 at-bats with his .275 average, which isn’t saying much — the team’s .227 average is the worst in baseball, during a season in which offense is at historic lows throughout the Major Leagues. On the other hand, the M’s pitching has generally been excellent, keeping them in contention for the A.L. West pennant.

Anyway, that’s enough stats for now… Bring on the second half!

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One response to “Mid-Season Report: Meh

  1. Pingback: Season-End Report, Part 1: What Happened? | Super Ichiro Crazy!

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